Mortgage News Daily Mortgage News Daily

  • Cybersecurity, TPO, Verification Tools; Tech Tracking Whereabouts; Why Rates Are Where They Are
    by Mortgage News Daily on April 19, 2024 at 3:33 pm

    It is “Take Your Child to Work Day” next Thursday which, if you work from home, is probably like a day off from school for the tyke. (I won’t be bringing my son Robbie to work, who, as I write this, is pedaling from Chicago to New York and bunked down last night in Union Home’s Bill Cosgrove’s humble abode.) I do not track his exact whereabouts, but we all know that, in having a smart phone, one gives up pretty much all of their privacy. For example, a new working paper posted to the National Bureau of Economic Research sought to examine the polling data that indicates 22 percent of Americans reported attending religious services on a weekly basis. They did this by looking at geodata from smartphones of 2 million people in 2019, and found that while 73 percent of people did indeed step into a place of worship on a primary day of worship at least once over the course of the year, just 5 percent of Americans studied in fact did so weekly, significantly smaller than the data people reported to pollsters. (Found here, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Optimal Blue. OB's smart solutions automate critical functions like pricing, hedging, trading, and social media. More originators and investors rely upon Optimal Blue's integrated solutions, data, and connections to support their unique business strategies, no matter how complex. Hear an interview between Robbie and me on a variety of topics in mortgage that are germane to the Daily Commentary.) Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services

  • Gradually Pulling Back From Flight to Safety Bid Overnight
    by Mortgage News Daily on April 19, 2024 at 2:06 pm

    The overnight session began with a very clear flight to safety in stocks (sell) and bonds (buy) on headlines regarding increased hostilities between Iran and Israel.  There have been plenty of "increased hostility" headlines this week that have not had much impact.  These were different because the initial newswires played up the risk to Iran's nuclear sites.  Shortly thereafter, the IAEA said there was no damage to nuclear sites and Iran said there were no plans for retaliation, despite previous warnings to the opposite effect.  With that, stocks and bonds began grinding back in the other direction--an effort that continues into early domestic trading.

  • Good News and Bad News About Today's Selling
    by Mortgage News Daily on April 18, 2024 at 7:55 pm

    Good News and Bad News About Today's Selling The bad news is that bonds resumed their weaker tendencies today with 10yr yields moving back up into the 4.6's.  Culprits included stronger economic data, hawkish Fed comments, and possibly the fact that the previous day's gains were driven by corrective short-covering.  The good news is a bit of stretch to be considered as such.  In order to do so, we must consider that today's high yields stopped well short of the high yields seen on Tuesday.  This pattern of "lower highs" is often seen at the beginning of a sideways consolidation, effectively ending the previous directional trend (at least for the time being).  It's a bit too soon to conclude that's the way things will play out this time, but on an objective note, today was the first time since April 5th that yields made it past the 48 hour mark without hitting a higher high.  Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 212k vs 215k f'cast, 212k prev Philly Fed Index 15.5 vs 1.5 f'cast, 3.2 prev Philly Fed Prices 23.0 vs 3.70 prev Market Movement Recap 08:37 AM roughly unchanged overnight a hair weaker after data.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.606. 09:41 AM Back to weakest levels after NYSE open.  MBS down an eighth.  10yr up 3.6bps at 4.625. 12:39 PM More Losses.  MBS down 10 ticks (.31).  10yr up 5.4bps at 4.644 03:13 PM hovering sideways near weakest levels.  MBS down 9 ticks (.28).  10yr up 4.8bps at 4.638

  • Mortgage Rates Higher Today, But Not Quite as High as Tuesday
    by Mortgage News Daily on April 18, 2024 at 7:36 pm

    Tuesday marked the highest mortgage rates since November, capping a mini surge that began after last week's inflation data. After a moderate improvement yesterday, rates moved back up toward (but thankfully not above) the recent highs today.  Financial markets reacted to stronger economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the possibility of no Fed rate cuts in 2024 and even a small chance of rate hikes.  Importantly, Fed members don't see hikes as being likely and the economic data would have to accelerate enough to justify a change in strategy.  We're definitely not there yet, but we're just as certainly not there when it comes to lower inflation readings required to validate the first rate cut.  At the March Fed meeting, officials still saw 3 cuts by the end of the year, albeit just barely.  Based on data that's come out since then, markets are betting on only one cut. Other news sources are running headlines regarding a big jump in mortgage rates to 7.10% based on Freddie Mac's weekly survey results released today.  Keep in mind that's a weekly number based on average of last Thursday through yesterday and that it doesn't account for the impact of discount points.  In other words, rates are definitely not 7.1 today, and especially not without points.

  • Bonds Are Back to Their Old Ways
    by Mortgage News Daily on April 18, 2024 at 4:09 pm

    After the best day in a month and a half on Wednesday, the bond market is back to its recent habit of selling off and moving toward higher yields.  It looked the losses were set to be more modest at the beginning of the day, but things got worse after Fed's Williams delivered a bit of a hawkish shift.  Williams was the one who pushed back against last week's CPI report, saying recent inflation setbacks were not a surprise.  Today's comments were only subtly different but markets honed in on his call for rate hikes in the event data justified it.  In truth, this is not a departure from the prevailing "data dependent" communication regime, but along with the data driven selling at 8:30am (Philly Fed reaction) it seems to have been worth something to traders so far this morning. Fed Funds Futures suggested a greater focus on the Williams comments, which is what you'd expect given that Williams' comments were more focused on near term policy possibilities.