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MBS RECAP: Friendly Confluence of Events Helps Bond Markets Repair Some Damage
by Matthew Graham on September 20, 2019 at 10:15 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryLast week brought the pain. It was the worst single week for the bond market (if we count MBS) since 2013. Although this week won't break any records, it was a refreshing change of pace, with almost every day seeing decent improvement. Today's gains were the best, but also the most serendipitous. A seemingly insignificant headline about Chinese delegates cancelling a trade meeting with Montana's agricultural bureau sent shockwaves through both sides of the market. Those headlines were flanked by newswires with market-friendly Fed speakers (Clarida and Bullard). Finally, the 3pm CME close brought a friendly imbalance (in our favor) in tradeflows surrounding the monthly options expirations deadline. This is the sort of thing that can help us or hurt us. Today it helped. Next week...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Mortgage Rates End Week Near Best Levels
by Matthew Graham on September 20, 2019 at 9:59 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchWhat a difference a week makes! At the end of last week, things were pretty grim, with mortgage rates having just seen their worst single week since 2013. The uplifting caveat at the time was that such bouts of nastiness are not that uncommon in the wake of ultra strong performances (such as the entire month of August--the best single month since 2002 if you can believe it!). In other words, last week was a correction to August's impressive strength. With that in mind, this week turned out to be a correction to last week's correction! There was no way to be sure, but we were hoping it was overdone and that bond traders would step in to buy bonds (which pushes rates lower) in response to the big move. That's exactly what happened and it resulted in measured improvements throughout the week....(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Homeowner Equity Reaches All-Time High in Q2
by Jann Swanson on September 20, 2019 at 3:22 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireTotal home equity, not surprisingly, increased again in the second quarter of the year. CoreLogic's quarterly Homeowner Equity Insights report, which looks only at properties with one or more mortgages, puts the aggregate increase at $428 billion year-over-year, a 4.8 percent gain. The company says that 63 percent of residential properties have a mortgage. "Home values have continued to rise in most parts of the country this year and we are seeing the benefit in higher home equity levels. The western half of the U.S. has experienced particularly strong gains in home equity recently," according to CoreLogic CEO and President Frank Martell. In July 2019, South Dakota and Connecticut were the only two states to post annual home price declines. These losses mirror the states' home equity performances...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Just Hoping for an Orderly Escape; Bigger Decisions on Hold
by Matthew Graham on September 20, 2019 at 2:14 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryIn the day just passed, bonds trading was exceptionally calm in the wake of Wednesday's Fed day. As I mentioned in the recap , it was one of the least volatile moves relative to expectations of any Fed day reaction I can remember. The consolidative vibes suggest either indecision or apathy, post-Fed. The clear takeaway from a strategy standpoint is that bonds really and truly are going to be heavily data-dependent in the coming weeks, barring some technical clue that gives away traders' underlying predispositions. In the day ahead, all we can do is keep an eye out for those technical clues and simply bide our time as the bond market does the same. The Fed will be more than willing to cut rates all the way to zero if the econ data justifies the move, but they aren't going to do it...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Fraud, Broker, and LO Products; Correspondent/Wholesale Changes
by Rob Chrisman on September 20, 2019 at 12:36 pm
Posted To: Pipeline PressA mile is 5,280 feet. And Central Park Tower on West 57th St. in Manhattan now stands at 1,550 feet, about a third of a mile. I mention this because it is now the tallest residential building in the world , and if you’d like to pony up $6.9 million for a unit, now’s your chance. When the builder starts cutting prices, we’ll know that we’re in a slowdown, but until then the press can focus on overseas economies slowing, trade concerns, and persistently weak inflation in the U.S. possibly leading to a U.S. slowdown. Many believe that at some point all this talk of a slowdown or recession in this country will become a self-fulfilling prophecy . It is interesting that President Trump wants the Fed to cut rates to zero, the sign of a stumbling economy which is not what we...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]