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MBS RECAP: Bonds Live to Die Another Day
by Matthew Graham on June 24, 2019 at 8:59 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryFriday was tense for the bond market, with selling pressure that was just big enough to cause concern about a bigger correction, and buying support that was consistent enough to suggest we still had a chance. Today's trading quickly proved it was buyers who had better control of the momentum--or did it? Today's trading certainly proved that yields were willing to go back down , but that may not have as much to do with buying demand as it does with the structure of the market and the exceptionally low volume. Simply put, it made strong, logical sense to be short bonds on Friday. After all, yields had rejected a post-Fed rally by failing to close below 2.02% for 2 straight days despite making it as low as 2.972% on Thursday. Friday quickly brought 10yr Treasuries back to the 2.06% technical...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Rates Catch a Break to Remain Near Long-Term Lows
by Matthew Graham on June 24, 2019 at 7:39 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were generally flat today, depending on the lender. Some were noticeably better while others were a hair worse. In both cases, rates are very close to the lowest levels since late 2016. Changes from Friday would most likely be measured in terms of upfront costs as opposed to differences in the quoted "note rate" itself (the rate most people are talking about when they talk about mortgage rates). Upfront costs simply allow for smaller fine-tuning adjustments when the market doesn't move enough for lenders to change rate quotes by the customary 0.125%. Holding steady today is a major victory given the landscape at the end of last week. At the time, the underlying bond market (which dictates rates) was in the process of bouncing back into weaker territory following a stronger reaction...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Mortgage Prepays Continue to Mount, Doubling in Four Months
by Jann Swanson on June 24, 2019 at 3:27 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireMortgage prepayment rates have continued to rise as interest rates move lower. Black Knight says prepayments increased by 24.31 percent in May compared to April and 32.17 percent on an annual basis. The company, in its "first look" at loan performance data for May, says the Single Monthly Mortality (SMM) rate, 1.23 percent, has more than doubled over the past four months and is at its highest level in more than two years. The national delinquency rate fell for the third consecutive month in May. There were 1.76 million loans that were at least 30 days past due but not in foreclosure, 3.36 percent of all mortgaged properties. This was the lowest level in Black Knight's records that date back to January 2000. Delinquencies fell by 3.03 percent or 52,000 loans compared to April and were down 107...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Tons of Upcoming Training and Events; Loan Delivery and Construction Products
by Rob Chrisman on June 24, 2019 at 1:32 pm
Posted To: Pipeline PressI start the last week of June in Park City, Utah at a STRATMOR meeting and with a correction. In discussing tax laws in Saturday’s commentary I wrote, “The new law limits the deductibility of mortgage interest payments to $10,000, thereby reducing tax incentives for ownership of higher priced homes.” Several readers astutely wrote that this was incorrect, and that mortgage interest isn’t capped at $10,000. It is the State And Local Taxes (SALT) that are limited to $10,000. The tax law limits the amount of mortgage interest to whatever interest you pay on loans up to $750,000. Thank you! While we’re geography, much of the nation’s recent population growth is still “out West.” Cities in the West that have seen the largest population increases recently...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Day Ahead: Guarding Against a Technical Bounce Before Decision Time
by Matthew Graham on June 24, 2019 at 1:19 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryIn the week just past, bonds were preoccupied with central bank communications. Wednesday's Fed announcement was going to be the only game in town, but Draghi's speech at the SINTRA conference (which promised rate cuts and additional easing) set a positive tone for bonds on Tuesday morning. The Fed struck a similar tone. While they didn't promise more easing, they said enough to convince markets that they would play ball with the recent shift in rate cut expectations as long as the economy warranted it. In the week ahead, we'll be counting down the days until we get to the data most likely to suggest whether or not the economy warrants Fed rate cuts! Specifically, the first week of July has been and continues to be of the utmost importance as it not only contains several of...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]