Posted To: MBS CommentaryWith the exception of the wee hours yesterday morning, the past 2 days have been all about the trade deal. Markets knew Trump and the Chinese vice premier would be meeting this afternoon and they increasingly believed some sort of trade announcement was likely. In fact, both stocks and bonds did such a good job getting ahead of such a thing that they moved in counter-intuitive directions as soon as it was announced. You know... buy the rumor, sell the news, and all that... While you know I'd be the first in line to say too many words about something that happens in financial markets, today was really that simple. In short, it was 2nd day of stocks and bonds pricing in some announcement of progress in US/China trade relations. In that context, the bond losses are reasonable (more than reasonable...(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates moved higher from Wednesday through the end of the week. Thursday and Friday were especially abrupt as financial markets hurried to get in position for a potential US/China trade announcement. What does trade have to do with the mortgage market? Quite a lot actually! Tariffs and general trade uncertainty have been some of the biggest driving forces behind 2019's huge drop in rates. Downbeat economic data and eroding business confidence led investors to put more money into safer havens like the bond market. When demand for bonds increases, bond prices move higher and bond yields (aka "rates") move lower. The economic uncertainty also played a key role in forcing the Federal Reserve to shift its stance on rates early in the year. While the Fed doesn't control mortgage rates directly...(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]

Posted To: MBS CommentaryYesterday brought an abrupt confirmation of a bounce in bonds. For 10yr Treasury yields, the scene of the bounce was 1.51% earlier in the week. Multiple attempts to move lower failed, but yields stayed close enough to try for 4 straight days. Things began to change on Wednesday as bonds began to weaken just slightly. Even then, they day's weakest levels weren't any worse than those seen on the previous day. It fell to yesterday, then, to not only break the little sideways range (1.51-1.59), but to crush it. The bounce validates the bigger-picture consolidation trend seen below. There is room to run in terms of momentum/technicals. In other words, bonds were just overbought, so they may shift back to being oversold, and they're not quite there yet--even in terms of fast stochastics...(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]

Posted To: MND NewsWireWhile home prices have surged back from their housing crisis lows, a report from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) says homes purchased as vacation properties have appreciated even more. NAR's 2019 Vacation Home Counties Report says that over the five years that ended in 2018, existing and new home prices gained an aggregate of 31 percent while the median price of a second home rose 36 percent. NAR found the areas with the greatest increases over the five-year span were in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts. Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, says the present figures are telling, especially when compared to data from 10 years prior. "As of 2018, household net worth reached an all-time high of $100.3 trillion - that's nearly double from a decade ago when wealth declined...(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]

Posted To: Pipeline PressFun with HMDA! Compliance folks everywhere know that yesterday the CFPB (“educate through education rather than enforcement”) issued a final rule amending Regulation C to extend the current temporary threshold of 500 open-end lines of credit to January 1, 2022. The final rule also incorporates into Regulation C the interpretations and procedures from the interpretive and procedural rule issued by the Bureau in August 2018, and further implements the amendments made to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act by the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act. You can access the final rule here. The Bureau has also posted a summary of the final rule and an unofficial, informal redline reflecting changes to Regulation C to assist industry and other stakeholders. Lender...(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]