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MBS RECAP: Bonds Face Some Pressure as Correction Extends
by Matthew Graham on August 19, 2019 at 9:59 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryThere haven't been many market moving headlines over the past 2 days with the exception of Germany removing the veil of secrecy from its fiscal stimulus discussions. That hit bonds on Friday and again in the overnight session. Otherwise, we've been essentially free from headline drama since Thursday afternoon (and no, Trump's dinner with Tim Cook wasn't a market mover). With all of the above understood, now consider that which came before it: plenty of headlines and plenty of gains in bonds (and losses in stocks). Putting two and two together, these news-free days have afforded the bond market (and stocks) a relatively innocuous opportunity (so far) to move in more of a corrective direction (i.e. higher yield) after 6 of the previous 11 days saw some of the biggest rallies in...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Mortgage Rates Hold Relatively Steady Despite Bond Market Weakness
by Matthew Graham on August 19, 2019 at 8:52 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates mostly held steady today , despite a move higher in broader interest rate indicators like the 10yr Treasury yield. Treasuries and mortgage rates typically track each other quite well, but that relationship has broken down in recent weeks due to the rapid drop in rates and the increase in volatility. The mortgage sector has a much tougher time adjusting to new realities compared to Treasuries. In other words, mortgage rates haven't been able to move lower nearly as quickly (though they have still managed to hit their lowest levels since 2016). The upside to that problem is that we get days like today where Treasury yields rebound without significantly damaging mortgage rates. In fact, many lenders are offering the same rates seen on Friday. Loan Originator Perspective Bond markets...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Fannie Mae Predicts Two Additional 2019 Rate Cuts, Here's Why
by Jann Swanson on August 19, 2019 at 4:09 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireFannie Mae used a fair number of trade-offs in while coming up with its revised outlook for the real gross domestic product (GDP) this year. The company's economists, headed by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, upgraded its full year forecast from 2.1 percent to 2.2 percent while at the same time painting a darker picture for the second half of the year. Second quarter growth beat expectations, according to Fannie's August Economic Developments report, largely because of strong consumer spending which is expected to have continued into this quarter. Nonresidential fixed investment and government spending are expected to weaken however, so the third quarter GDP has been downgraded from 1.9 percent to 1.8 percent. The economists continue to believe growth will slow next year, but that forecast has...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Day Ahead: Is It Over?
by Matthew Graham on August 19, 2019 at 1:24 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryIn the week just passed, bonds rallied to new long-term low yields before bouncing on Friday. Hong Kong protests over the weekend kicked things off on a strong note and weak global economic data on Wednesday sparked the next leg of the rally. Thursday saw more of a momentum/capitulation move without much by way of concrete cause and effect. Friday's reversal was credited to news of potential German fiscal stimulus (more bond issuance, not more bond buying, as it would be if it were "monetary" stimulus). In the week ahead, bonds will get a chance to see how much momentum can build behind a technical bounce. In other words, we've had an impressively strong move to yields that are lower than much of the market anticipated. Has the relentless rally forced all hands? Has everyone...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Trailing Doc and U/W Products; Vendor Trends and News, Capital Markets
by Rob Chrisman on August 19, 2019 at 1:10 pm
Posted To: Pipeline PressBuilders can’t complain too much about material prices anymore. Building materials prices rose only 0.7% in July, and are down overall year-over-year. Despite tariffs, softwood lumber prices are down 20% over the past year and other products like gypsum, tar, and asphalt (roofing) have also dropped. Rising home costs are less due to “sticks and bricks” and more to labor, land, and regulatory costs & regulations. Regulatory costs & regulations? MLOs know about those, and for lenders who put out videos, and everyone else, they should know it is illegal to improperly use the screeching, belting tones of the emergency alert/broadcast system. The FCC lodged hundreds of thousands of dollars in fines against a number of broadcasters for the use of a sound effect. For example...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]