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MBS RECAP: Deceptively Relevant Econ Data But Range Prevails
by Matthew Graham on February 15, 2019 at 8:43 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentarySince Retail Sales rocked markets yesterday, perhaps bonds would be interested in responding to economic data again today? This question seemed to have been answered when bonds apparently jumped following this morning's 8:30am economic data. The only problem was that the data in question included NY Fed Manufacturing and Import/Export Prices. These are not reports that tend to cause such immediate and highly correlated movement. So what gives? For better or worse, I stare at a tick by tick stream of bond data for most of the day. Anyone else who spends their lives in such a manner would also surely have seen bonds on the move in 2 distinct ways well in advance of 8:30am. The first was a more general move that began with the European trading session. While it was general and relatively slow...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
"Homeowners are in Great Shape," Delinquencies Improve Across the Board
by Jann Swanson on February 15, 2019 at 8:13 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireMortgage loan delinquencies were down from the third quarter of 2018 in the fourth quarter. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the improvements held across all loan types and all stages of delinquency although there was a slight uptick in foreclosure starts. The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.06 percent of all loans outstanding, down 41 basis points (bps) from the third quarter and 111 bps from the fourth quarter of 2017 according to MBA's National Delinquency Survey. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the fourth quarter rose by 2 bps to 0.25 percent but MBA said that was probably due to the expiration of foreclosure moratoria in states affected by natural...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Mortgage Rates in a Holding Pattern
by Matthew Graham on February 15, 2019 at 8:01 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were slightly higher today, marking the 6th day in a row where they've reversed course versus the previous day. This is the sort of behavior we see when underlying financial markets are having a hard time making up their mind (or are simply waiting for something before committing to the next big move). In the case of mortgage rates, the underlying financial market is the bond market. There are specific bonds that most directly affect mortgage rates, but they are almost always moving in the same direction as other bonds anyway. That allows us to use something like the 10yr Treasury yield to keep an eye on interest rate momentum. There we see yields locked in an increasingly narrow range since the beginning of the year. Movements inside that range aren't important to the bigger...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Day Ahead: Range Trade Likely to Dominate Heading Into Holiday Weekend
by Matthew Graham on February 15, 2019 at 2:53 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryRates were at long term highs in early November 2019. Several global economic risks were beginning to swirl at the same time. These included a slowdown in German GDP, the weakest Chinese retail sales in 15 years, Italian budget drama, and a Federal Reserve that didn't seem to care about big stock losses in October. The Fed had released an announcement on the Wednesday before Veteran's Day weekend. That trading day saw 10yr yields hit 3.25% and they never went any higher after that. In fact, they mostly went lower--especially when the stock sell-off kicked into higher gear in December. All of the above made November and December the best 2-month stretch for rates in more than 2 years. When rates rally that aggressively, they usually take a break and move sideways before deciding if the...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
GSEs Continue Financial Winning Streaks
by Jann Swanson on February 15, 2019 at 2:42 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireFreddie Mac and Fannie Mae (the GSEs) reported solid financial results for both the fourth quarter and the entirety of the 2018 fiscal year on Thursday. The annual income was higher for both GSEs , although each posted a decrease quarter-over-quarter. Fannie Mae's total comprehensive income for the fourth quarter was $3.2 billion compared to $4.0 billion in the third quarter, and it reported a $16.0 billion total for the year. Because of ramifications from the 2017 tax act , its comprehensive income for the 2017 year was only $2.6 billion. Freddie Mac's total comprehensive income for the year was $8.6 billion compared to $5.6 billion in 2017 (it too had unusually high tax obligations that year.) For the fourth quarter comprehensive income dropped from $2.6 billion to $1.5 billion. Fannie Mae...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]