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MBS RECAP: Nothing to be Mad About, But...
by Matthew Graham on May 18, 2018 at 8:43 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryBonds rallied today for the first time all week, and fairly well at that! 10yr yields fell more than 5bps and Fannie 3.5 MBS rose nearly 3/8ths of a point. Not much to be mad about there, right? Indeed, there's nothing to be mad about , but there are all sorts of reasons to remain cautious. The rally was driven by a combination of European political drama and short-covering in US bond markets. Here's an external link that does a better job than I can of explaining the Eurodrama quickly. And here's a homegrown link the goes into greater detail on short-covering. The day's best gains were seen during the 2nd half of the European session (which effectively ends at noon ET), but short-covering kept the positive trend intact through the domestic close. To reiterate what I said earlier...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Temporary Factors Help Mortgage Rates... Temporarily
by Matthew Graham on May 18, 2018 at 7:31 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates caught some small semblance of a break today. If it's not apparent based on that assessment in conjunction with the headline, the improvements certainly left something to be desired, even though that's to be expected, given the circumstances. Here's what I mean by that: Rates are based on the bond market. Trading levels in the bond market are back in line with (or slightly better than) Tuesday's levels. But mortgage rates are still higher than those seen on Tuesday. It's really that simple. Why is it to be expected? Mortgage rates aren't created automatically based on the bond market. The bond market is merely the primary input. Lenders use bond prices/levels as a baseline for determining rates. If the market has been more volatile, lenders are quicker to raise rates and slower...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Day Ahead: What Is a Short Squeeze And How Could It Help Us?
by Matthew Graham on May 18, 2018 at 1:21 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe notion of "positions" is extremely important to the bond market (and to any market for that matter). At the most basic level, a LONG position seeks to profit from prices rising (or yields falling) and a SHORT position seeks to profit from prices falling (or yields rising). Quite often, the structure of accumulated positions in the Treasury market acts as its own driver of momentum . The key reason for this is the very logical practice of traders protecting themselves from undue losses with automatic trades unsurprisingly known as "stop losses" or simply "stops." For instance, if the market is overly long, and if a big chunk of longs were set-up around a specific trading level, if yields happen to move higher than that trading level (or something close to it...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Subservicing, Compliance, and Warehouse Products; Private Mortgage Insurance Trends
by Rob Chrisman on May 18, 2018 at 1:18 pm
Posted To: Pipeline PressFolks heading to the MBA’s Secondary conference should know that there are 329 street-level newsstands in New York City. (The peak was 1,500 in the 1950s.) By law, the maximum price for anything at a newsstand is $10, meaning that newspapers are a significant part of that business. Finance & news about it make the world go ‘round, and thanks to Steve A. for passing along a new essay where Pope Francis calls for intensified regulation of the "sophisticated technologies" of financial markets. Private Mortgage Insurance News “The Community Home Lenders Association (CHLA) writes to ask FHFA to investigate the pricing practices of private mortgage insurers (PMIs) with respect to use of volume discounts and other proxies for this in the offering of mortgage insurance for Fannie...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
NAR Curtails Earlier Home Sales Estimates
by Jann Swanson on May 18, 2018 at 1:09 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireIn the face of continuing inventory shortages, declining consumer sentiment in favor of buying a home, and concern about the homeownership impacts of the 2017 tax cut bill, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has revised down, albeit only slightly, its forecast for home sales this year. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told Realtors attending NAR's Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo that, after accelerating 3.8 percent in 2016, existing home sales rose only 1.1 percent to 5.5 million in 2017. He forecasts they will finish this year around 5.6 million, a gain of 1.8 percent. In his initial 2018 forecast last November Yun said he expected sales to increase by 3.7 percent to 5.67 million units. Looking further into the future, he sees 2019 sales totaling 5.7 million existing homes....(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]