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MBS RECAP: Today's Market Mover: Jawboning
by Matthew Graham on August 20, 2018 at 9:31 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryWhen it comes to financial markets, the definition for "jawboning" is a bit looser than normal as it also encompasses market movement that occurs simply because "someone" said "something." In other words, in some cases, the person who said the thing that moved markets may not have been trying to elicit a certain response, but I would still call that jawboning. Ultimately, though, what we call it doesn't matter . The fact is that today's market movers were all mere comments from a few key people as opposed to any new fundamental or technical developments. These included comments from Jeffrey Gundlach (from late Friday) on the risk of a short squeeze in bonds, comments from Altanta Fed Pres. Bostic on slowing down rate hikes, and reports of the President...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Mortgage Rates Resisting a Move Lower
by Matthew Graham on August 20, 2018 at 8:59 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were almost perfectly unchanged again today, meaning they haven't really changed in more than a week. All this despite a rather noticeable improvement in underlying bond markets (something that typically goes hand in hand with lower mortgage rates). Granted, the bonds that underlie mortgage rates didn't do quite as well as US Treasuries, but even then, mortgage rates barely budged. Is this some sort of evil conspiracy? Probably not... It probably has more to do with a phenomenon we discuss fairly frequently whereby the improvements in bonds over the course of the day aren't quite enough to get lenders to change their rates in the middle of the day. The result is that lenders are more likely to offer those improvements tomorrow morning assuming, of course, that bond markets don...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Great Recession Still Taking Toll
by Jann Swanson on August 20, 2018 at 7:29 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireIrving Berlin once wrote, "The song might be over, but the melody lingers on." That, according to a paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (San Francisco Fed), sort of describes the Great Recession. A decade after the financial crisis and recession the U.S. economy remains significantly smaller that it would be had its pre-growth trends continued. Three Fed researchers, Regis Barnichon, Christian Matthes, and Alexander Ziegenbein, say this diminished level of output could result in a lifetime present-value income loss of about $70,000 for every American. Not only is the U.S. GDP, adjusted for inflation, well below the level it seemed inclined to achieve based on its growth before the recession, but so are the economies of the United Kingdom and other European counties . This diversion...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Week Ahead: Slow Data, Vacation Absences, Fed Minutes Make For Uncertain Week
by Matthew Graham on August 20, 2018 at 1:12 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe frustrating thing about weeks that are normally vacation-heavy is that the resulting lack of volume and liquidity can leave bonds in a position to make quick, unprovoked, illogical movements... sometimes. Other times, the vacation-week gameplan is simply to keep bonds as close to unchanged as possible, with the intention of sorting things out after everyone gets back in the office. To make matters just a bit more uncertain, there are no economic reports until Wednesday and only one significant piece of data with Friday's Durable Goods. We'll also get Fed Minutes on Wednesday, but don't expect fireworks considering the meeting itself produced a very bland policy announcement. Technicals are in agreement with fundamentals. Yields are grinding around in a sideways range in the...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Digital Products; Corporate Moves, Gov't-Owned Banks; Amazon and Marriott Deal
by Rob Chrisman on August 20, 2018 at 12:55 pm
Posted To: Pipeline PressIn my travels around the States, I see that some lenders are nervous. Yes, margins appear to have, for the most part, stopped compressing dramatically. Many lenders have exited, as have low-producing production staff. Staff reductions will continue. But veterans of the biz know that summer is basically over, in terms of the locked pipeline. Many locked loans will fund in September and October. Autumn is around the corner, and winter is coming… neither of which are traditional high purchase volume seasons. And it is doubtful that lenders will have large number of refinances to cushion any seasonal volume blows. Survival of the fittest… and of those with the lowest cost to produce to outlast competitors. Capital Markets MCT is proud to announce new functionality that delivers real...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]