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MBS RECAP: Bond Market Pain Continues; Volatility Potential Only Increasing
by Matthew Graham on April 24, 2018 at 8:56 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryAfter yesterday's somewhat hopeful leveling-off in bond yields, today served to drive home the point that hope is futile and only bad things are going to happen forever and ever. Well, at least that's how it felt today. To be fair, yields are only closing a few bps higher and they've managed to hold very close to yesterday in terms of intraday highs. In fact, today saw by far the smallest increase in intraday highs since the more serious selling began last week. In other words, there's still some room for hope. Just don't get too attached. From here on out, the presence of hope may have more to do with the incoming events. These get more serious tomorrow with the first reading of Q1 GDP, a 5yr Treasury auction, and the biggest day of earnings reports so far this year (by...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Mortgage Rates Push Farther Into 4-Year Highs
by Matthew Graham on April 24, 2018 at 8:26 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates moved somewhat higher again today, thus pushing them farther into the highest levels in more than 4 years. This isn't the result of anything that happened today, but rather an ongoing process whereby the bond market (which underlies rates) is coming to terms with big-picture, long-term headwinds mentioned in the bullet points at the bottom of this article. Whereas rates had leveled off and even improved somewhat during March and early April, they've quickly shown more volatile colors. Borrowers are definitely seeing rates that are an eighth of a point higher from last week and, in many cases, a quarter of a percentage point higher than 2018's best levels. Tomorrow brings several flashpoints that keep the volatility potential high. These include the 1st report on Q1 GDP, and important...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Home Sales Unfazed by Spring Snow and Rising Rates
by Jann Swanson on April 24, 2018 at 3:24 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireNew home sales continue to improve after grim reports in December and January. New home sales posted a solid gain in March, and revisions to the February data also resulted in a positive outcome during the month. Those sales, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development on Tuesday, bested analysts' expectations and put sales well ahead of those in 2017. Sales of newly constructed single-family homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000 in March compared to the revised rate of 667,000 in February, a 4.0 percent increase. Even better, the revision to February numbers was significant, up from the original report of 618,000, originally reported as a 0.6 percent month-over-month loss. That number had been viewed as good news, after drops...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
FHFA: Current Run of Rising Home Prices Likely to Continue
by Jann Swanson on April 24, 2018 at 2:32 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireBoth the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller reported on February home prices on Tuesday and both showed little moderation in the rate of appreciation. Case-Shiller's reported gains, in fact, appear to be growing larger. Case-Shiller's National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, was up 6.3 percent on a year-over-year basis. The annual gain in January was 6.1 percent. The non-seasonally adjusted index increased by 0.4 percent from February and it rose 0.5 percent after adjustment. Both composite indices increased their year-over-year results as well . The 10-City Composite rose 6.5 percent on an annual basis, one-half point greater than the December to January gain and the 20-City grew to 6.8 percent. It was 6.4 percent the...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Day Ahead: Don't Let 3.0% Make You Dumber
by Matthew Graham on April 24, 2018 at 2:25 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryYou won't be able to avoid "3% 10yr Treasury Yields" this week. For starters, 10's have already hit 3.0033% today, but simply being close seems to have everyone inside and outside the industry talking. As is often the case when there's a big, obvious trend that hits/breaks a big historical level, the conclusion of most professionals and laypersons is that "rates will continue to rise." Such insight deserves one of these: "Rates are gonna rise" is the easiest call to make in a world where the Fed is hiking, QE purchases are abating, and the government is financing more spending by issuing more Treasury debt. There are other pressures, but these are the biggies. It's logical and normal to assume these things put upward pressure on rates. It's...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]