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MBS RECAP: Slightly More Active Than a Typical Summertime Monday
by Matthew Graham on July 16, 2018 at 9:52 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentarySummertime Mondays are notorious for light volume and seemingly random trading. Today was a slightly more active than normal in that regard, largely due to the presence of top tier data (Retail Sales) and a geopolitical event in the form of the Trump/Putin summit. The latter was never expected to offer any major revelations, but the former is always capable of delivering some bond market momentum. Bonds were just slightly weaker heading into the Retail Sales numbers. The weakness continued after the report came out stronger than expected. But wait! It was 0.5 vs 0.5, so how was it stronger than expected? The key difference was in the revision to last month's report (previously 0.8 but now 1.3%). The "core" sales reading was also revised higher. Additionally, several GDP estimates...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Mortgage Rates Edge Higher
by Matthew Graham on July 16, 2018 at 8:11 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates fell to their lowest levels since late May as of last Friday. Today, then, would be the 2nd best day since late May. Rates edged slightly higher to begin the new week as bond markets (which underlie rates) came under modest pressure for several relatively inconsequential reasons. The net effect was a small adjustment in the upfront costs associated with prevailing rates. In other words, the actual interest rate governing your monthly mortgage payment hasn't changed in weeks, but the upfront costs tied to that rate are slightly higher for lenders today compared to last Friday. Loan Originator Perspective My clients and i continue to favor locking in once within 30 days of closing. Only loans i would consider floating would be those that can lock on a shorter time tomorrow or if...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Week Ahead: Another Week, Another Chance to Run Same Old Play
by Matthew Graham on July 16, 2018 at 1:05 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryThis is the off-season for bonds, but they still have to show up for the game every day. The coaching staff (aka the traders turning the cogs of the underlying bond market) have been running the same play every day since June 27th . It's a play that's been working on both offense and defense, thus providing an easy button for the entire team (even if it's also a "boring button"). No one gets hurt, and no one has a ridiculously good time--typical off season. So what's the play in question? Simply put, bond market players have been tasked each day with playing harder and harder defense whenever yields rise toward 2.88. On offense, they only push hard enough to get yields to 2.825, as seen on the following chart with numerous bounces on the lower teal line. I included...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Broker Products; Blockchain Transaction; Input on DACA Loans
by Rob Chrisman on July 16, 2018 at 12:50 pm
Posted To: Pipeline PressWhen Costco rolled out its mortgage option to members, many lenders were very concerned. But despite great potential, Costco/First Choice has not become the #1 lender in America. I heard something interesting last week: Costco doesn’t make much money selling products, it makes all profits from membership fees . Despite Bank of America’s great quarterly results this morning, lots of lenders aren’t making much money selling their products either, unfortunately, and the number of residential lenders who haven’t adjusted their headcount, compensation plans, or business models in reaction is dwindling . (The latest example is job cuts at State Farm .) If a branch or channel hasn’t been profitable for a while, ask what’s going to happen, if anything, to reverse...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Permit to Completion - Builder Timeline Depends on Where and Why
by Jann Swanson on July 16, 2018 at 12:14 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireDespite complaints about labor, lot, and material shortages, builders needed no more time to build a home last year than they did in 2016. The time did increase compared to 2015 by about two weeks. Using data from the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction (SOC), the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) concludes that the average time to build a single-family house was 7.5 months. The actual building time was about 6.5 months following a typical delay of around 30 days after the permit was authorized. Data from the 2015 survey showed the time from permit to completion at 7 months. The range however is wide, from less than a month to more than 6 years. Much depends on who is building the house, for what purpose, and where. , writing in NAHB's Eye on Housing Blog, says that houses built...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]