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MBS RECAP: Just When You Thought The Ceiling Was a Ceiling
by Matthew Graham on July 20, 2018 at 10:45 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryUndoubtedly, yesterday's bond trading sent a clear message that a technical ceiling near 2.88% was met with strong defense from traders who bought bonds and pushed yields back down into the recent range. Color all of us shocked, then, that today saw yields promptly rise right back up to that ceiling! Perhaps even more frustrating was the fact that it would take no small miracle to make solid sense of the move from a technical or fundamental standpoint. Still, I will try... One of the two explanations I offered for yesterday's strong buying was that it could have been due to traders cashing out short positions. More simply put, traders who bet on rising rates in the short term (at the last bounce at the bottom of the range last week) could have booked their profits and closed out short...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Mortgage Rates Behind the Curve For 2nd Straight Day
by Matthew Graham on July 20, 2018 at 10:27 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates improved today but it was largely a byproduct of yesterday's market movement that didn't make it onto lenders' rate sheets at the time. Mortgage lenders set rates based on trading levels in mortgage backed securities or MBS (the bonds that groups of mortgages turn into when they're traded among financial firms on the secondary market). None of the esoterica above is too important as long as you understand that there's moment to moment trading in the bond market providing the primary consideration for mortgage lenders setting rates. If that market moves enough in the middle of the day, lenders may make mid-day adjustments to rate sheets. Yesterday saw almost enough of an improvement for lenders to offer lower rates. As such, today's morning rate sheets were better than yesterday...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
NAHB Sees Lopsided Growth in Housing Starts
by Jann Swanson on July 20, 2018 at 3:43 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireIn another dive into data from the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction (SOC), the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) found that one third of the nine census divisions and thus 21 states were responsible for 60 percent of single family housing starts last year. The South Atlantic division encompasses the coastal states stretching from Delaware to Florida plus West Virginia and accounted for 260,000 of the 848,000 starts last year. The West South Central division was in second place and the Mountain division third. The number of starts in 2017 was up 9 percent from 2016 and four divisions outpaced the national rate; the Pacific division at 17 percent, West North Central at 11 percent, South Atlantic and Mountain divisions at 10 percent each. Growth decelerated from the 2016 rate...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Fannie Sees Growth Slowing, Turns Bearish on Housing
by Jann Swanson on July 20, 2018 at 2:03 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireFannie Mae's economists have upgraded their second quarter economic forecast but say that may be about it for the year . In their July forecast, the company's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group, headed by Doug Duncan, noted that the expansion just celebrated its ninth anniversary "with a bang." Economic growth in the second quarter may have approached the high in that expansion that occurred almost three years ago. The outlook for housing has turned bearish. Single-family construction starts were up in May for the fourth time in five months but still lagged the post-crash high of last November. (Fannie Mae's economists prepared this report before the June data was released wherein housing starts plummeted by more than 12 percent.) Multifamily starts rebounded in May, reversing about...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Day Ahead: Back in The Range, But Yield Curve Could Protest
by Matthew Graham on July 20, 2018 at 1:27 pm
Posted To: MBS Commentary10yr yields attempted to break above their prevailing range yesterday. As we discussed in the Day Ahead, it takes more than just an intraday move above a ceiling in order to confirm such a break is taking place. Ultimately, yesterday's theme evolved into a resounding defense of the 2.88+ yield ceiling. More simply put: yields briefly traded near 2.90% and then bounced lower with solid demand underlying the move. As the top section of the following chart shows, today has seen yields hold right in the middle of the prevailing range. If they remain fairly close to current levels, today will end up being an uneventful "punt" to next week. Bonds will effectively be saying they're putting off bigger decisions for now. In fact, they'd be putting off the comparatively small decision...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]