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MBS RECAP: Bonds Tank as 2018 Fears Become Real Again
by Matthew Graham on September 18, 2018 at 8:17 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryRemember early 2018 when the fear was compounded by this list of bad actors? increased Treasury issuance to pay for the revenue shortfall in the new tax bill the upside economic/inflation potential created by the new tax bill A Federal Reserve that was increasingly intent on hiking rates and increasingly willing to decrease the size of its balance sheet (aka, bond buying) Foreign central banks that were tiptoeing ever close to their own "taper tantrum" moments It was enough to send 10yr yields quickly over 3% by May 2018. Then the Italian political drama reminded markets that things could still go wrong. Tariff uncertainty added to that sentiment and bonds sneaked through the summertime months without much of a fuss. Enter September. We knew September could bring a sea-change to the...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Mortgage Rates Officially Highest in at Least 5 Years
by Matthew Graham on September 18, 2018 at 7:35 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates edged up to 4-year highs with yesterday's bond market losses and things went from bad to worse today. Bond markets (which underlie and directly affect rates) are under extreme pressure today and have generally had a very bad September. Weakness in bonds equates to higher rates. So why are bonds weak? In part, this is weakness that was expected way back at the beginning of the year as the tax bill came to fruition and as economic data continued to suggest ongoing expansion. Given that the inflation/growth outlook was a whole lot worse in 2013 and early 2014 when 10yr Treasury yields briefly crested 3.0%, it stood to reason that those same yields would almost certainly need to move well over 3.0% this time around (inflation/growth are key factors in Treasury yields and rates in...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
House-Hungry Millenials Help Keep Builder Confidence Solid
by Jann Swanson on September 18, 2018 at 2:29 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireBuilder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes stabilized a bit in September. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which has been wobbly in recent months, retained its August reading of 67 in September. The two months are tied at the lowest level of the index so far this year. "Despite rising affordability concerns, builders continue to report firm demand for housing, especially as millennials and other newcomers enter the market ," said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. "The recent decline in lumber prices from record-high levels earlier this summer is also welcome relief, although builders still need to manage construction costs to keep homes competitively priced." Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Adrift on an Angry Sea of Red
by Matthew Graham on September 18, 2018 at 1:14 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryNot to be confused with the Red Sea, which is an actual place, the sea of red in the title is merely a reference to general bias toward weakness in bond markets for however long you care to look back in time (provided you don't look back more than 2 years). Most pressing is the time frame between now and the end of August which has seen 10yr yields rise nearly 20bps. That makes the past 3 weeks the worst selling spree since April, and introduces yet another attempt to break free from the gravitational pull of 10yr yields at 3%. Bond bulls hope to see gravity kick in at the teal line in the following chart. The manner in which it's been approached suggests we shouldn't take such support for granted, but neither can the technical significance of the 3% zone (3.015% specifically, over...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Broker, Sales Products; Lender and Agency Florence Updates
by Rob Chrisman on September 18, 2018 at 12:41 pm
Posted To: Pipeline PressTRID 2.0: mandatory compliance on 10/1 is only a few weeks away. Temenos has a primer on it , as does Qualia . The MBA had a piece on it . The NY MBA has a webinar next week. In Michigan the MMLA has a seminar on it this week. Hopefully everyone’s up to speed already. Lender Products and Services Stearns Wholesale helps brokers grow and brand their business with social media. Marketing Tools for SNAP 2.0 now offers Social Media Graphics for our most popular products and services. This marketing portal allows you to create personalized marketing pieces to help you extend your reach, grow your customer base and brand your business. Customizable flyer and social media templates can be personalized for both business-to-business and consumer relationships. It’s Easy! We provide the flyers...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]