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Bright Economic Outlook Muted by Housing Data
by Jann Swanson on October 20, 2018 at 12:07 am
Posted To: MND NewsWireFannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group is still expecting that economic growth will "likely" be solid in the third quarter, but they are otherwise hedging their bets. In their October Outlook, the economists said the lower job growth in September does not alter their view that the labor market is strong, but GDP growth has probably slowed from its second quarter pace, partly reflecting a deceleration of product investment and consumer spending. The surge of soybean exports that tried to get ahead of tariffs has subsided and with a strengthening dollar, the trade deficit has probably widened, and residential fixed investment is probably also down, extending that decline into a third straight quarter. Real estate sales commissions are part of that calculation and home sales...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Purchase Share, FICOs, ARMs All Increasing -EllieMae
by Jann Swanson on October 20, 2018 at 12:04 am
Posted To: MND NewsWireThe share of closed loans originated for home purchase continues to inch higher. Ellie Mae, in its September Origination Insight Report , says that share jumped from 68 percent in August to 71 percent . The upward trend in purchasing was most pronounced for FHA loans where the share rose 5 percentage points to 83 percent. For Conventional loans the share moved to 69 percent from 66 percent while there was only a 1-point increase in the VA share, to 73 percent. The distribution of loans did shift slightly for the first time in months. The VA and FHA shares of closed loans remained at 10 and 20 percent respectively but the Conventional shared dipped by 1 point to 65 percent. The share of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS) increased to 7.2 percent from 6.6 percent in August. "We see refinances remain...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS RECAP: Super Sideways and Slightly Weaker
by Matthew Graham on October 20, 2018 at 12:02 am
Posted To: MBS CommentaryBonds were stuck between a rock and a hard place today. Actually they were stuck between stocks and a European place. Stocks made a case for a bond rally (not that stocks are in total control of bonds, but all other things being equal, stocks' intraday momentum is frequently seen accompanying bond rallies). European markets pushed in the other direction with German Bund yields rising 3 times as fast as US 10yr yields. The net effect was moderate weakness, mostly early in the day. That stands to reason as Europe is closed during the 2nd half of our domestic trading day (therefore not around to keep adding is influence). In the bigger picture, the weakness wasn't a big deal. We're effectively sideways at 7-year highs in rates. That's been the case for most of the month. Stocks...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Rates Edge Back Toward Long-Term Highs
by Matthew Graham on October 19, 2018 at 7:25 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates failed to extend yesterday's modest improvement, moving modestly higher by the end of the day. This takes the average lender very close to the long-term highs seen on October 5th. Indeed, prospective borrowers shouldn't be surprised to see the highest rates since early 2011. In and of itself, today wasn't too dramatic. We were already fairly close to these highs yesterday and, in general, have been holding in a fairly sideways pattern nearby for most of the month. As has been the case for more than 2 years, we are in a rising rate environment, and there's no compelling reason for an immediate change. That said, the higher rates go, the harder it will be for them to continue moving higher. Additionally, when rates are historically high, we tend to see more "false starts" that...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Existing Home Sales Extend Slump, But Inventory Holds Annual Gain
by Jann Swanson on October 19, 2018 at 3:02 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireExisting home sales slipped in September, following a month in which sales were almost totally flat. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said that closed transactions for existing single family homes, townhouses, condos, and cooperative apartments was at a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.15 million in September. This was a 3.4 percent decline from both the July and August rate, both of which came in at 5.34 million units. The last month in which existing home sales posted a month-over-month gain was in March. Sales are now down 4.1 percent year-over-year from the September 2017 rate of 5.37 million. Analysts polled by Econoday, after overshooting the mark for five straight existing home sales reports, lowered the bar for September. Despite this, the NAR report missed even the lowest...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]