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MBS RECAP: Bonds Battle Back After Hitting Long-Term High Yields
by Matthew Graham on September 17, 2018 at 9:06 pm
Posted To: MBS Commentary10yr yields briefly hit their highest levels since May 23rd this morning after one large trade started a snowball sell-off in Treasuries. Before that, modest weakness was already intact. "A snowball sell-off to 4-month highs" sounds a bit more dramatic than the actual scope of weakness. At the worst moments of the day, we were still looking at less than 3bps of losses in 10yr yields. It didn't take long for buyers to take advantage of the yields, even though traders were contending with another big day of corporate bond issuance . Making the rally slightly less impressive was the fact that stocks were selling at the same time, potentially adding a risk-off component to the move. Ultimately, 10yr yields weren't willing to dip back below the 2.99% technical level and Fannie...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Mortgage Rates Match 7-Year Highs
by Matthew Graham on September 17, 2018 at 8:39 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates may have had a fairly bad day last Friday, but today was worse . Today officially saw the average lender back at rates not seen since May 17th, 2018. That date might not seem too far away, but at the time, it marked the highest rates since late April of 2011. In other words, today's rates matched 7-year highs. If there's a saving grace , it's the fact that underlying bond markets were able to improve throughout the day without most mortgage lenders adjusting rate sheets accordingly. In other words, if bonds are in the same territory by tomorrow morning, the average lender would be offering slightly lower rates. The other potential saving grace is that rates have had a bad enough moving streak that they're increasingly likely to catch a break simply due to the normal cadence of...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Fannie Thinks Economic Expansion Just Peaked
by Jann Swanson on September 17, 2018 at 7:11 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireThe robust growth in the economy in the second quarter may be the final peak of this expansion according to Fannie Mae's Economic Development Report for September. Initial data indicates the 4.2 percent growth last quarter appears to be moderating to the estimated third quarter gain of 3.2 percent predicted in the August report. All factors considered, including inventory restocking and increased government spending leads Fannie's Economic and Strategic Research Group (ESR) to expect full-year 2018 growth of 3.0 percent before a slowdown to 2.3 percent in 2019 as the fiscal stimulus runs its course. ESR expects consumer spending and business fixed investment growth to moderate but remain at a solid pace but expect that trade will drag on growth. Second quarter growth had benefitted in part...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Downpayments Hit Record Levels
by Jann Swanson on September 17, 2018 at 3:00 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireThere were quite a few recent milestones, high and low, noted in the Quarter 2 Residential Property Loan Origination Report from ATTOM Data Solutions. The report covers the 2.09 million 1 to 4 unit residential loans originated during the quarter, an increase of 15 percent from the first quarter but only 1 percent more than a year earlier. One striking finding was the increase in the size of downpayments during the quarter - a median of $19,900, a record high in data going back to the first quarter of 2000. This is a 19 percent increase from $16,750 in the previous quarter and 18 percent from $16,925 in the same quarter last year. At a percentage, that represents 7.6 percent of the median sales price of the homes purchased with a mortgage during the quarter, compared to 6.6 percent in both of...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Week Ahead: Lighter Data This Week as Markets Position for Fed Next Week
by Matthew Graham on September 17, 2018 at 1:18 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentarySeptember continues to be an unfriendly month for bonds, marked by an unfriendly trend that has carried yields almost exclusively higher. Some of the weakness can be chalked up to pent up selling demand that was on hold through the end of August, but economic data and supply situation (lots of bonds being issued by the time we count corporate debt ) are responsible for the lion's share of the movement. Case in point, even with trade war fears, geopolitical uncertainty, and the Fed Funds rate rising just as quickly as markets expect, August still managed to offer up the highest readings in years in Manufacturing and Consumer Sentiment. Core inflation may have missed its forecast, but nonetheless remained over the 2% target. Wage growth rose to a post-crisis high in year-over-year terms,...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]