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MBS RECAP: Bonds Ignore Stocks to Hold Steady on The Week
by Matthew Graham on August 17, 2018 at 9:30 pm
Posted To: MBS Commentary10yr yields ended the week at almost exactly where they began. With the exception of Tuesday, bonds closed within 1.5bps of each other on the other 4 days this week. Tuesday was only 2bps higher and gave way to an overnight rally that restored the range anyway! Long story short, for all the hullabaloo about Turkey/China/Etc. it was a really quiet week. Part of the issue is that Turkish shockwaves had their fun last week, but even then, it's not as if bonds are making big moves in the bigger picture. If bonds aren't moving, perhaps we can find something interesting to say about something that IS moving and that usually has an effect on bonds. Granted, I'll be the first to point out that the stock market should never be seen as a bond market indicator, but if we want to keep track...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Mortgage Rates Almost Perfectly Unchanged This Week
by Matthew Graham on August 17, 2018 at 8:29 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were almost perfectly unchanged today. That leaves them right in line with last Friday's levels. I devoted a considerable number of words in yesterday's article to explaining why most other articles about mortgage rates were inaccurate yesterday. Suffice it to say that the absence of change compared to last Friday fully drives home the point I was making. In short, due to the primary source data that most news organizations use for their big mortgage story each week, the average article proclaimed a nice drop in rates. In actuality, that drop happened at the end of last week. From there, rates have barely budged. These rates aren't the worst we've seen and they're not the best. They're pretty comparable to most of the past few months. You'd have to go back to May 2018 to see...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Fannie Mae Research: Housing, What a Drag?
by Jann Swanson on August 17, 2018 at 3:41 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireFannie Mae's monthly Economic Development papers always have the best headlines, pithy and to the point. The August one reads. "Growth Picks Up as Expected, No Thanks to Housing." Sort of says it all. The company's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Team is upgrading its estimate of third quarter growth based on the acceleration of headline economic growth in the second quarter. Consumer spending and net exports drove the action although business inventories declined and dragged on growth. So too did residential investment, which had a negative impact for the fourth time in five quarters, subtracting 0.04 percentage point from the GDP. The residential investment component includes homebuilding, renovations, and brokerage commissions. Home building was lackluster, posting the largest monthly...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Day Ahead: Checking In With Bigger Picture (Treasury vs MBS)
by Matthew Graham on August 17, 2018 at 2:22 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryIt may end up being a slow, summertime Friday with the news cycle calming down relative to earlier in the week, not to mention the fact that its peak vacation season (traders take vacations too, ya know!). That gives us a moment to step back and reflect on some bigger picture trends . US rates have been playing Red Light, Green Light with global risks all year. If they had their way, they'd continue moving higher, but they slowed their roll and settled into a more gradual pace after the Italian political drama in the middle of the year. The weeks leading up to the Italian drama ended up looking like a big, temporary breakout of what would eventually become the sideways-to-slightly-higher range. Subsequent global risks haven't measured up to Italy in terms of bond market impact. Trade...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Second Quarter Loan Performance Shows Steady Improvement
by Jann Swanson on August 17, 2018 at 1:03 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireLoan performance continued to improve in the second quarter. The overall delinquency rate on one-to-four-unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.36 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of that period, a 27-basis point (bp) decline from the first quarter of this year. The National Delinquency Survey conducted by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) found delinquencies in all stages were lower than during the first quarter; the 30-day delinquency rate dropped 2 bps while the 60-day and 90-delinquency buckets dropped by 8 and 18 bps respectively. The overall rate, however was up 12 bps from the second quarter of 2017. The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The share...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]