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MBS RECAP: Bonds Pulled Back Toward Top of Fence
by Matthew Graham on June 20, 2018 at 11:04 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryBefore the Italy drama picked up at the end of May, bonds were very much on the bad side of the fence. Italy quickly punted rates to the other side of the proverbial fence , but the good times didn't last long. As we moved toward last week's central bank announcements, rates/bonds did what they had to in order to keep in line with the 21-day moving average (the center of the popular Bollinger Band technical study--middle line below). Central bankers were generally bond-friendly (or at least not 'unfriendly'). Combined with Monday's trade war headlines, this helped bonds begin to creep back down toward the friendly side of the fence. But even as early as yesterday morning, it looked like the trade war motivation had given all it could give and that we might be headed back...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher
by Matthew Graham on June 20, 2018 at 8:48 pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates moved modestly higher today after holding in roughly the same territory for the past 3 days. This brings them back in line with last Thursday's levels. In general, trade tensions helped the bond market earlier this week (stronger bonds = lower rates), but the bonds that underlie mortgages didn't benefit nearly as much as US Treasuries. Additionally, mortgage lenders have had to play it safer than normal amid a rising rate environment and recently higher volatility. The net effect of these factors is that mortgage rates have often not been able to participate too much during the good days, but have still had to take their lumps on the bad days. The caveat to all of the above is that the day-to-day moves have been very small in the grand scheme of things. For instance, today's...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Existing Home Sales Below Expectations for Second Month
by Jann Swanson on June 20, 2018 at 2:55 pm
Posted To: MND NewsWireAnalysts were expecting existing home sales to rebound in May after they fell behind year-ago levels in April. However, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported a second straight monthly loss , with the Northeast the only region where sales improved. Sales of existing single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and cooperative apartments were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.43 million in May, a 0.4 percent decrease from April and down 3.0 percent from May 2017. It was the third straight year-over-year decline. April sales were also downgraded from 5.46 million to 5.45 million. The May results came in below the lowest of analysts' expectations as reported to Econoday. Those predictions ranged from 5.44 million to 5.65 million with a consensus of 5.50 million. Single-family...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
MBS Day Ahead: Checking in With "Longer-Term Trend"
by Matthew Graham on June 20, 2018 at 2:06 pm
Posted To: MBS CommentaryI talk quite a bit about the " long-term trend " or the "longer-term trend" these days. It most frequently comes up in some iteration of the following: "until the long-term trend has been clearly defeated," etc. But what exactly are we talking about? The following chart has several iterations. TOP: This is the most relevant of the 3 for the lock/float outlook. It leaves some room for corrections that take rates back to the lower boundary, but there's no guarantee we'll hit the lower end before we return to the upper end. MIDDLE: This is what I would consider to be the general counterattack leading back from the all-time lows in 2012. Yes, yields did move a bit lower (to new all-time lows) in 2016, but I tend to view that as a temporary divergence due to...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]
Credit Scoring and HR Products; Freddie and Fannie - Never Standing Still
by Rob Chrisman on June 20, 2018 at 12:59 pm
Posted To: Pipeline Pressonight/tomorrow morning is the summer solstice. I am in Minneapolis at an ACUMA workshop and where the sun will set tonight at 9:03. (I suppose ACUMA could have held its event in Anchorage, where the sun sets at 11:42 tonight, which would be cool.) I mention credit unions because a) their market share is growing, and b) the talk is how President Trump is trying to reshape the National Credit Union Administration board by nominating former NCUA vice-chair Rodney Hood to fill an expired seat on the three member board. Fannie and Freddie Changes Those rascally, friendly competitors just don’t stop to take a breath and seem to be busy trademarking every phrase and new product. (Watch out for a little “TM” or an “R” with a circle around it in promotional stuff.) On...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it. […]